Orcadian

Executive Dashboard

Orcadian Energy PLC · CEO: Stephen A. Brown · Edinburgh, UK

Model v2.0 · 2026-03-08

11 / 200 docs analysed

Risk-Adj NAV

$812K

Portfolio FV at primary

Expected Return

32.1%

Weighted FV vs primary

Steady-State Yield

8.2%

Post-carry distributions

2P Reserves

78.8 MMbbl

Pilot (Sproule CPR)

Total STOIIP

1,274.8 MMbbl

P50 across portfolio

Cash Position

£75,919

Runway: 1.4 months

Token Summary

TokenAssetFair ValuePrimaryUpsideSupplyYieldRiskAlloc
R3 FixedPilot Field$24.67$18.0037%20,0008.6%Medium-High55%
R4 VariableEarlham Cluster$14.82$12.0024%15,00011.4%High30%
R5 VariableFynn Beauly$3.87$3.0029%25,000Very High15%

Catalyst Timeline

Q2 2025

Serica/Parkmead acquisition close

Fynn

H2 2025

APT viscosity prediction study

Fynn

Feb 2027

Fynn Beauly drill-or-drop

Fynn

2028

Earlham FID target

Earlham

2029

Pilot FDP approval

Pilot

2030

Pilot first oil

Pilot

2031

Earlham first gas / MOGU online

Earlham

2037

Pilot carry repayment complete (est.)

Pilot

v1 → v2 Valuation Bridge

R3
$42.18 $24.67 -42%

Carry mechanics, EPL 75%, TGS ORRI

R4
$28.41 $14.82 -48%

80/20 carry, EPL on gas, cluster offset

R5
$15.67 $3.87 -75%

Dev prob 8% vs 30%, unfunded cash call

Going Concern — MATERIAL UNCERTAINTY

Cash £75,919 vs £40-55k/mo burn (director fees discretionary) = 1.4–1.9 months runway. Carried on Pilot (Ping) and Earlham (MLCP). Fynn Phase A: £530k gross, partially offset by Serica technical fees. Requires equity raise for corporate overhead.