R4 343 bcf gas-to-wire cluster with integrated CCS, partnered with MLCP on 80/20 carry, targeting 300MW MOGU platform. · Concept Select
Earlham Cluster
R4 Variable Supply · 15,000 tokensP2680 · Block 50/26b · Gas-to-Wire + CCS · 50% WI (MLCP partner)
Fair Value
$14.82
P10: $4.5 · P90: $38.9
MOGU Capacity
300 MW
4× GE LM6000 on Sea Nova
Cluster Resource
343 bcf
3-field cluster P50
CO₂ Capture
95%
CapsolGT (Hot K₂CO₃)
Power Price
£85/MWh
Base case
Discount Rate
22%
22% built-up RADR
MOGU Concept — Gas-to-Wire with CCS
Platform
Sea Nova self-elevating platform with 4× GE LM6000 Velux gas turbines
300 MW gross capacity, 180 MW at 60% dispatch
CapsolGT carbon capture: 500k tonnes/yr CO₂ captured
Revenue Streams
Electricity: £134m/yr gross
CCS credits: £25m/yr at £50/t
Cable: Own AC via RWE Norfolk Vanguard co-location
Well Test
50/26b-8: 30 MMscf/d (rate-limited by CO₂ erosion, not reservoir). PI = 0.23 MMscf/d/psi. Designed capacity 80-100 MMscf/d.
Rate-limited by CO₂ erosion, not reservoir
Designed capacity: 80-100 MMscf/d
Cluster Gas Supply — 20-30 Year Resource
| Field | P50 (bcf) | CO₂ % | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earlham | 114 | 49% | discovered | — |
| Orwell | 31 | 10% | discovered, blowdown | — |
| P01-FA (Netherlands) | 199 | 5% | discovered, cross-border | — |
| Clover | 153 | 0% | prospect, 38% GCoS | Bunter Sandstone, likely NO CO₂ |
| Total Cluster | 343 | 30+ years at 60% dispatch | ||
| + Clover (prospect) | 496 | 38% GCoS, Bunter Sandstone | ||
Cluster Gas Supply — Resource Stack
3-field cluster P50 resource + Clover exploration upside
Source: Orcadian subsurface estimates
Revenue Sensitivity — NPV at Gas Prices
Token fair value at different gas/power price assumptions
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
EPL Classification — Binary Outcome
| Scenario | Token FV | Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ring-fence (75% tax) | $14.82 | 11.4% | Conservative base case — gas-to-wire classified as upstream |
| Power gen exempt (25% tax) | $29.64 | 22.8% | If classified as electricity generation, not hydrocarbon extraction |
| EPL removed 2030 | ~$20 | ~16% | Current sunset date, if not extended |
Distribution per Token — R4 Yield Profile
$/token/year · Dramatic jump post-carry as Orcadian reverts to 50% WI
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R4 Sensitivity Analysis
Fair value impact by input variable
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
Annual Cash Flows
| Year | Phase | Gross £m | ORC RI | ORC Rev £m | Tax | Post-tax £m | $/token |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2031 | Carry | 79.5 | 10% | 8.0 | 75% | 0.99 | $2.51 |
| 2032 | Carry | 159.0 | 10% | 15.9 | 75% | 1.98 | $5.02 |
| 2033 | Carry | 159.0 | 10% | 15.9 | 75% | 1.98 | $5.02 |
| 2034 | Carry | 159.0 | 10% | 15.9 | 75% | 1.98 | $5.02 |
| 2035 | Carry | 159.0 | 10% | 15.9 | 75% | 1.98 | $5.02 |
| 2036 | Carry | 159.0 | 10% | 15.9 | 75% | 1.98 | $5.02 |
| 2037 | Post-carry | 159.0 | 50% | 79.5 | 75% | 14.88 | $37.79 |
| 2038 | Post-carry | 159.0 | 50% | 79.5 | 75% | 14.88 | $37.79 |
| 2039 | Post-carry | 159.0 | 50% | 79.5 | 75% | 14.88 | $37.79 |
| 2040 | Post-carry | 159.0 | 50% | 79.5 | 75% | 14.88 | $37.79 |
| 2041 | Post-carry | 140.0 | 50% | 70.0 | 75% | 12.50 | $31.75 |
| 2042 | Post-carry | 130.0 | 50% | 65.0 | 75% | 11.25 | $28.58 |
| 2043 | Post-carry | 120.0 | 50% | 60.0 | 75% | 10.50 | $26.67 |
| 2044 | Post-carry | 100.0 | 50% | 50.0 | 75% | 8.50 | $21.59 |
| 2045 | Post-carry | 70.0 | 50% | 35.0 | 75% | 5.25 | $13.34 |
| Total Undiscounted | $305.70 | ||||||
| Discounted Fair Value (22% RADR) | $14.82 | ||||||