Token Valuations
DCF-based fair values · Model v2.0 · All values USD
R3 — Pilot
$24.67
Primary: $18
R4 — Earlham
$14.82
Primary: $12
R5 — Fynn
$3.87
Primary: $3
Portfolio FV
$812K
At primary prices
Exp Return
32.1%
FV vs primary
Payback (R3)
108 mo
9 years
DCF Summary — All Tokens
| Token | Fair Value | P10 | P90 | Undiscounted | DR | Buy Below | Sell Above | Yield | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 — Pilot | $24.67 | $11.20 | $42.15 | $29.30 | 20% | $20 | $35 | 8.6% | Fixed |
| R4 — Earlham | $14.82 | $4.50 | $38.90 | $305.70 | 22% | $12 | $28 | 11.4% | Variable |
| R5 — Fynn | $3.87 | $0.00 | $28.40 | $48.38 | 25% | $2.5 | $8 | — | Variable |
R3 — Pilot Sensitivity
Carry repayment period and EPL regime are the two most impactful variables. Oil price third.
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R4 — Earlham Sensitivity
EPL classification is binary — power gen vs upstream. If exempt, FV doubles. Cluster materialisation is second most important.
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R5 — Fynn Sensitivity
Dev probability IS the sensitivity. Everything else is noise until the viscosity study proves the concept.
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R3 Revenue Waterfall — First Post-Carry Year (2037)
How $99.8m gross flows to token distributions at full 18.75% WI
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R3 Distribution Timeline
$/token/year across field life · Carry → post-carry inflection
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
v1 → v2 Valuation Bridge
| Token | v1 FV | v2 FV | Change | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | $42.18 | $24.67 | -41.5% | 10% RI during carry (-30%), EPL 75% tax (-25%), TGS ORRI (-5%), provider fee (-3%). Partially offset by higher post-carry distributions. |
| R4 | $28.41 | $14.82 | -47.8% | 80/20 carry mechanics (-35%), EPL on gas profits (-25%). Partially offset by cluster economics (+15%) and 300MW capacity (+10%). |
| R5 | $15.67 | $3.87 | -75.3% | Dev probability 8% vs 30% (-60%), unfunded £530k cash call (-10%), no offshore thermal analogue (-10%). Asymmetric upside preserved. |