R3 254 MMbbl heavy oil field carried to first oil by Ping Petroleum, targeting 22,000 bopd via polymer flood with Captain field analogue. · FDP Preparation
Pilot Field
R3 Fixed Supply · 20,000 tokensP2244 · Blocks 21/27, 21/28 · Operator: Ping Petroleum (81.25% WI)
Fair Value
$24.67
P10: $11.2 · P90: $42.15
Breakeven Oil
$58/bbl
At $75 base case
Discount Rate
20%
20% built-up RADR
Peak Production
22,208 bopd
Year 2033
2P Reserves
78.819 MMbbl
Sproule CPR (Apr 2021)
Recovery Factor
47.4%
Polymer flood EOR
Carry Mechanics — Critical Value Driver
Ping carries Orcadian through first oil (zero capex). During repayment of ~$1.6bn capex, Orcadian receives only 10% of gross revenue (vs 18.75% WI). 80/20 split: Ping takes 80%, Orcadian 20% less TGS ORRI & opex. Estimated 7 years to full repayment. Post-carry distributions jump ~3× as Orcadian reverts to full 18.75% WI.
Pilot Production Profile — Gross Field Rate
Annual average bopd · Carry phase (amber) vs Post-carry (teal)
Source: Sproule CPR April 2021 + Management Pilot Subsurface
Distribution per Token — R3 Yield Profile
$/token/year across 16-year field life · Carry inflection at 2037
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
Revenue Waterfall — Peak Year 2033 (During Carry)
How $114m gross revenue flows to R3 token distributions
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
R3 Sensitivity Analysis
Fair value impact by input variable
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
Token Economics — Revenue Waterfall (During Carry)
How gross revenue cascades to R3 token distributions · Steady-state carry period
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
Token Economics — Revenue Waterfall (Post-Carry)
Post-carry: Orcadian reverts to 18.75% WI — distributions jump ~2×
Source: Albion DCF Model v2.0
STOIIP — 5 Independent Estimates
Range of Stock Tank Oil Initially In Place estimates · Core area vs Total field
Source: Venture 2017, EnQuest 2020, Sproule CPR 2021, Axis 2022, Management 2025
Carry Timeline — Revenue Interest Phases
Orcadian receives 10% RI during carry repayment, then 18.75% WI post-carry
Source: Ping Petroleum carry agreement · Albion DCF Model v2.0
STOIIP Estimates Comparison
| Source | STOIIP (MMbbl) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Axis Geoscience 2022 | 254 | Full field including peripheral — Mid Case |
| Sproule CPR (Reserves area) | 205 | Main 181 + South 24 MMbbl — basis for reserves |
| Sproule CPR (+ Peripheral) | 244 | Reserves 205 + Peripheral contingent 39 MMbbl |
| Sproule CPR P50 | 91 | P50 (partial area) |
| Sproule CPR P10 | 112 | High case |
Recovery Factor Comparison
| Method | RF | Recovery | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterflood only | 8-12% | 20-30 MMbbl | EnQuest 2012 |
| Polymer flood 1P (Sproule) | 30% | 61.5 MMbbl | Sproule CPR |
| Polymer flood 2P (Sproule) | 40% | 82.0 MMbbl | Sproule CPR |
| Polymer flood 3P (Sproule) | 55% | 112.8 MMbbl | Sproule CPR |
| Polymer flood (lab) | 76.7% | ~70 (lab core) MMbbl | KemSweep lab test |
Annual Cash Flows
| Year | Phase | Gross bopd | Gross Rev $m | ORC Rev $m | Opex $m | Tax $m | Post-tax $m | $/token |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | Carry | 6,292 | 32.3 | 3.23 | 1.7 | 1.15 | 0.38 | $0.43 |
| 2031 | Carry | 17,715 | 90.9 | 9.00 | 4.8 | 3.15 | 1.05 | $1.18 |
| 2032 | Carry | 17,485 | 89.7 | 8.88 | 4.7 | 3.14 | 1.05 | $1.18 |
| 2033 | Carry | 22,208 | 114.0 | 11.29 | 6.0 | 3.97 | 1.32 | $1.49 |
| 2034 | Carry | 20,926 | 107.4 | 10.63 | 5.6 | 3.77 | 1.26 | $1.42 |
| 2035 | Carry | 20,528 | 105.4 | 10.44 | 5.5 | 3.71 | 1.24 | $1.39 |
| 2036 | Carry | 19,520 | 100.2 | 9.92 | 5.3 | 3.47 | 1.16 | $1.30 |
| 2037 | Post-carry | 19,441 | 99.8 | 18.52 | 5.3 | 9.92 | 3.31 | $3.72 |
| 2038 | Post-carry | 19,110 | 98.1 | 18.21 | 5.2 | 9.76 | 3.25 | $3.66 |
| 2039 | Post-carry | 19,168 | 98.4 | 18.27 | 5.2 | 9.80 | 3.27 | $3.67 |
| 2040 | Post-carry | 16,297 | 83.7 | 15.54 | 4.4 | 8.36 | 2.79 | $3.13 |
| 2041 | Post-carry | 12,469 | 64.0 | 11.88 | 3.4 | 6.36 | 2.12 | $2.39 |
| 2042 | Post-carry | 8,922 | 45.8 | 8.50 | 2.4 | 4.58 | 1.53 | $1.72 |
| 2043 | Post-carry | 6,562 | 33.7 | 6.26 | 1.8 | 3.35 | 1.12 | $1.25 |
| 2044 | Post-carry | 5,099 | 26.2 | 4.86 | 1.4 | 2.60 | 0.87 | $0.97 |
| 2045 | Post-carry | 2,109 | 10.8 | 2.01 | 0.6 | 1.06 | 0.35 | $0.40 |
| Total Undiscounted | $29.30 | |||||||
| Discounted Fair Value (20% RADR) | $24.67 | |||||||
Reservoir Properties
API Gravity
15.8°
Viscosity
409 cP
Depth
2650 ft
Temperature
88°F
Permeability
4,000 mD
Porosity
35%
Net Pay
60 ft
Polymer
KemSweep NLP-5001
Fiscal Regime
Ring Fence CT
30%
Supplementary Charge
10%
Energy Profits Levy
35%
Total Marginal Rate
75%
EPL Sunset
2030 (assumed extended)
Heavy Oil Discount
10% to Brent
Base Oil Price
$75/bbl
Realised Price
$67.5/bbl
Sproule CPR — OIIP Breakdown (April 2021)
| Area | OIIP (MMbbl) | Acres | Net Pay (ft) | Porosity | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilot Main | 181 | 1,420 | 54 | 34% | Reserves |
| Pilot South | 24 | 300 | 37 | 31% | Reserves |
| Reserves subtotal | 205 | 1,720 | — | — | — |
| Pilot Peripheral | 39 | 778 | 24 | 33% | Contingent (Dev Unclarified) |
Source: Sproule B.V. CPR, effective April 1, 2021. Axis Geoscience (2022) full-field STOIIP of 254 MMbbl includes additional prospective areas.
Sproule NPV — 2P Reserves (Pre-EPL, 40% tax)
Based on Brent $55 long-term + 2%/yr escalation, $1.35/£. These values are at the ADMISSION tax regime (40%). Current EPL regime (75%) would materially reduce after-tax values.
| Metric | 0% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 15% | 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2P Before Tax ($M) | 1,638 | 1,045 | 791 | 654 | 393 | 218 |
| 2P After Tax ($M) | 1,121 | 705 | 524 | 425 | 236 | 107 |
| 2P Tax ($M) | 518 | 340 | 268 | 229 | 158 | 111 |
Well Penetrations — Pilot & Adjacent
| Well | Field | Zone | IP (bopd) | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/27a-5x | Pilot Main | Tay | 1,850 | 1998 | Abandoned |
| 21/28a-8z | Dandy | Tay | 1,080 | 1998 | Abandoned |
| 21/28a-6 | Crinan | Tay | 1,016 | 1987 | Abandoned |
| 21/27-2 | Pilot Main | Tay | 115 | 1990 | Abandoned |
| 21/27a-5z | Pilot Main | Tay | — | 1998 | Abandoned |
| 21/27a-6 | Pilot Main | Tay | — | 1998 | Abandoned |
| 21/27-3 | Pilot Main | Tay | — | 2007 | Abandoned |
| 21/27-4 | Pilot Main | Tay | — | 1989 | Abandoned |
| 21/27-1A | Pilot South | Tay | — | 1990 | Abandoned |
| 21/27b-7 | Blakeney | Tay | — | 2010 | Abandoned |
| 28/3-1B | Elke | Tay | — | 2000 | Abandoned |
| 28/2-1 | Narwhal | Tay | — | 1993 | Abandoned |
| 28/2a-2 | Narwhal | Tay | — | 2007 | Dry |
All wells abandoned. No current production from any Orcadian licence. Source: Sproule CPR Table 1.