Risk Matrix
3-tier risk assessment across all assets
Risk Scatter — Probability × Impact
🔴 Tier 1 — Existential
| Risk | Asset | Probability | Impact (FV %) | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymer failure | Pilot | 15% | -65% | high |
| Orcadian insolvency | All | 25% | -100% | critical |
| Ping walks away | Pilot | 10% | -100% | high |
| EPL tightened | All | 40% | -30% | high |
🟠 Tier 2 — Material
| Risk | Asset | Probability | Impact (FV %) | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carry >10 years | Pilot/Earlham | 30% | -18% | medium |
| Cable denied | Earlham | 15% | -80% | high |
| Serica exits Fynn | Fynn | 40% | -50% | medium |
| Oil <$60 sustained | Pilot | 20% | -22% | medium |
🟡 Tier 3 — Notable
| Risk | Asset | Probability | Impact (FV %) | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGS ORRI drag | Pilot | 100% | -5% | low |
| Sproule CPR stale | Pilot | 50% | -10% | low |
| CO₂ handling cost | Earlham | 60% | -15% | medium |
| Free gas in oil | Pilot | 30% | -10% | low |
| Lateral seal leak | Pilot | 20% | -15% | low |