⚙ Scenario Inputs
Oil Price (Brent) $75/bbl
$50$120
UK Power Price £85/MWh
£40£150
Carbon Credit £50/t
£20£100
Carry Repayment 7 years
3yr12yr
EPL End Year 2030
2026 (ESIM)2030
✅ EPL ends before Pilot first oil — no 78% tax exposure
CPI Rate (OGPM escalation) 2.1%
1.0%4.0%
Discount Rate R3 20%
12%30%
Discount Rate R4 22%
15%30%
Fynn Dev Probability 8%
0%30%
Polymer RF 47%
20%55%
Quick Scenarios
Scenario Engine
Interactive DCF model — drag sliders to see NAV recalculate in real-time
Fiscal Regime (2030)
Permanent (40%)
OGPM Threshold
$97.80/bbl
OGPM Exposure
None
Effective Tax Rate
40%
Eff. Brent Threshold
$109/bbl
incl. heavy discount
R3 FV / Token
$63.62
Primary: $18.00 · ✅ 253%
R4 FV / Token
$52.68
Primary: $12.00 · ✅ 339%
R5 FV / Token
$—
Primary: $3.00 · 8% dev prob
Portfolio NAV
—
All tokens at FV
R3 Yield (annualised)
22.1%
R4 Yield (annualised)
29.3%
R3 Breakeven Oil
$35/bbl
Carry Repayment Year
2037
Fiscal Regime Timeline
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
EPL (78%)
Permanent (40%)
OGPM active (40%+35%)
Fair Value Comparison
R3 Pilot
$63.62
R4 Earlham
$52.68
R5 Fynn
$—
Primary sale price
R3 Distribution Timeline ($/token/year)
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
Carry (10% RI)
Post-carry (18.75% WI)
EPL regime
OGPM active
Model Assumptions
Heavy oil discount10%
TGS ORRI1% gross
Opex$17.48/boe
R3 royalty2.5%
R4 royalty3.0%
Provider fee10%
R3 tokens20,000
R4 tokens15,000
MOGU capacity300 MW
Dispatch factor60%
GBP/USD1.27
Polymer RF47%
EPL rate38% (total 78%)
OGPM rate35% on revenue excess
OGPM base threshold$90/bbl (CPI-adj)