Portfolio Model
Risk-adjusted allocation across 3 tokenised assets
Risk-Adjusted NAV
$812k
Expected Return
32.1%
Weighted Yield
8.2%
Weighted Payback
102 months
Allocation
Token Summary
R3 Pilot Field (P2244)
$24.67 @ $18
R4 Earlham Cluster (P2680)
$14.82 @ $12
R5 Fynn Beauly (P2634)
$3.87 @ $3
Stress Scenarios
| Scenario | R3 FV | R4 FV | R5 FV | Portfolio Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil crash ($50/bbl) | $15.2 | $12.5 | $2.1 | -34% |
| EPL removed + oil $90 | $42.5 | $29.6 | $5.8 | +96% |
| Polymer failure (waterflood only) | $8.63 | $14.82 | $0 | -56% |
| Full cluster + Clover success | $24.67 | $22.4 | $3.87 | +18% |
| Fynn breakthrough (viscosity < 1,000 cP) | $24.67 | $14.82 | $28.4 | +42% |
Token Correlation Heatmap
Color scale: -1 (red) → 0 (grey) → +1 (green)
R3 highly correlated to oil price. R4 more correlated to UK power prices and carbon credits. R5 is mostly idiosyncratic (development risk dominates).
Stress Scenario — Portfolio Value
Base case portfolio value: $812k
Exploration Upside — Prospective Resources (Sproule CPR)
Unrisked 2U estimates from Sproule CPR (April 2021). Not included in token valuations — represents additional exploration optionality.
| Prospect | OIIP (MMbbl) | 2U (MMbbl) | EOR Type | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowhead | 123 | 43.1 | Polymer flood | Largest prospect. P2320. Requires £8-9m well. |
| Pilot Channels | 83 | 29.1 | Polymer flood | 4 channels (N/C/S/Far S). Extension of Pilot. |
| Elke satellites | 173 | 60.6 | Polymer flood | 4 sub-prospects: Updip West, North, Area 2&3, Main Channel |
| Tiberius | 47 | 28.4 | Conventional waterflood | Lighter oil (Fulmar). Different development concept. |
| Bottlenose | 76 | 30.4 | Conventional waterflood | Lighter oil (Lista). No polymer needed. |
| Total | 502 | 191.4 | Unrisked — chance of geological discovery + development not applied | |